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tv   Risk and Reward With Deidre Bolton  FOX Business  September 16, 2015 5:00pm-6:01pm EDT

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ron paul. who knows the fed better than ron paul. you can disagree with the guy on a lot of things. he knows the fed inside and out. it is a huge day. could be huge for markets as well. please don't miss a moment of it. >> that does it for us. "risk & reward" starts right now. [screaming. [sirens] dierdre: these are images that most in the western world don't expect to see in europe. the migrant crisis is reaching fever pitch. hungarian police firing water cannons against refugees trying to cross the border. christian whiton former state department official. what does this signal as far as u.s. commitment to take in 10,000 migrants?
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>> you know it is a bad sign. i don't think it is a good sign when you have refugees throwing rocks and bottles of water at police. they have been through a lot. not any situation i would wish on any people but these people are coming from an area that is rife with islamism, radical islam, terrorism. things like this, vast majority of refugees may have no interest in that. there may be isis operatives or sympathizers. may be others sympathetic to radicalism. hungary tried to put the brakes on, basically erecting a border fence, stopping a the flow of refugees. here in the united states, president obama said he will take 10,000. josh rogan at bloomberg said that may go up to 15,000 or 20,000 and beyond. dierdre: christian, as you point out, there are blog posts that say we don't want to live in europe. if we stay where we are we're going to die, we know that thus you have this kind of desperation. the u.s. has given more than
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$4 billion to the syrian refugee crisis through the national security council. is this the best way for the u.s. to contribute? >> the best thing we can do is get serious about defeating isis. once we make the decision to go to war, should go to war with overwhelming force and go to win. we have partners. free world is not expecting this to do this by ourselves. we have gulf partners. we have european partners. that is just better than admitting a huge portion of the population of syria and other states to the united states or to europe. it is important to say we're also very compassionate towards refugees. we admit 75,000 a year already. what this might involve going up to 85,000 next year and 100,000 the year after that. that seems like an awful lot. dierdre: christian, you worked a lot on refugee issues at the state department. you also worked for the undersecretary who overall -- oversaw the refugee bureau. what are the most important
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logistical concerns? as you say, 10,000 are being discussed but as you point out some sources are saying the number could go much higher. >> right. it is very difficult in any situation like this with refugees to conduct background checks. to have a guarranty they're not sympathizers with islamism or radicalism, whatever you want to call it. i did have experience in this and have very little confidence in our ability to screen them. not like we can talk to nair neighbors or people in the country of origin to get a feel on their chacter. what we've seen on hungary's border, if you're willing as first act of interaction with a country, throw rocks at police engaged in lawful activities that is a very bad sign. we know isis will probably be including among these refugees, some of its operatives. 72%. 72% of these refugees are male. that is unusual. many of military age. this is not necessarily a good population from a security risk
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point of view. dierdre: complicated issue. christian, joining me there, thank you so much. former state department official. glad for your insight. >> thanks. dierdre: technology is helping migrants navigate, depending less on predatory human traffickers. young syrians use google maps to aid them. we have the senior tech correspondent at mashable. before we talk about the mapping apps, talk about something that christian just mentioned. what if there were some sort of a fingerprint database, how is tech able to help countries that want to reach out to the refugees and protect themselves at the same time? >> that is an interesting question. i think if you were to have many so sort of a database refugee, that opens up different questions about the ethics involved would be. that is more competence that i have any expertise in discussing. technology could be used in a way to identify these. we knows these are certain groups. these are from certain families
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and we know where they reside and that keeps families together when they come across. dierdre: that was a case brought in the south. the fbi had fingerprints of some people who had in fact helped bombing against u.s. troops in iraq and afghanistan. that led to discovering these ties. getting back to the refugees. let's assume that most of them just want to leave because their country is in a civil war. they don't want to die. they don't want their families to die. seems if technology, google maps in particular, is helping them navigate a little bit better. how are they even charging their phones? >> that is the great thing way technology is. they can buy inexpensive phones before leaving the country. many of them get battery packs. they are using apps such as facebook, google maps as you mentioned. whatsapp is incredibly popular. dierdre: it is free. >> very commonly used in those countries. what they're able to do before they go on their journey, they're able to do research. what do i need to do? what do i need to bring with me?
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what are things i need to do to get over more safely? once they're on the trip, if something happens they can alert others to their position, saying hey, we need your help. this is where we're stuck. once they get there easier to help identify people they know. dierdre: there are aid organizations using those data points to know where to reach people for food and water. christina, glad to have you with us. thank you. christina warren from mashable. she will be back later on. meantime thousands of migrants stranded. hungary closed off the border with serbia, constructing a razor wire-topped fence. there are more walls around europe and the middle east maybe than you realize. republican presidential candidate donald trump cause ad stir with his idea for north america. >> we're going to build a wall -- [shouting] and mexico is going to pay for the wall.
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believe me. [shouting] why with me now -- dierdre: with me now, sabrina schaefer, independent women's forum, democratic strategist. also cliff schechter. i want to start with you. we spoke with home depot founder bernie marcus yesterday. here is what he said about donald trump's idea. >> you can't solve these problems by talking about the stupidity of people and people are dumb and everybody else is dumb and i'm smart. tough do it by coming out with real facts and real problems involvers. if you don't that, you will not solve the problems. dierdre: so bernie marcus is more a less a fan ever donald trump's but he just seems to say that wall idea is absurd. what is your take? >> right. no one here today that doesn't admit we have an immigration challenge in this country but i think one of the big questions to ask, what is driving the problem?
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one of the things we have a very large welfare state. we have, there is a lost reason for people to come here. a wall, that is not really dealing with the root of the problem. we need to figure out how we make sure that people who want to be here, who want to work, who want to pay taxes and who want to pass citizenship are doing that in legal fashion and that we're not enabling illegal immigration. that will be much more effective than trying to alienate people and make this no longer a free country that people come to from around the world. dierdre: so, cliff, picking up on sabrina's point of view, hungary has been very clear in its argument saying we are a poor country. we can barely support who's here. that is harder argument, is it not, for the u.s. to make? >> that is a hard argument to make but we can make a simple argument a wall is not going to work. there is a huge difference. what you have in this country, 40% of the undocumented workers here, staying here, overstaying
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visas are coming in airplane. i don't think a wall would do very good job of stopping. history proves once again if they want to get across a border, they will get across a border. ask east berlin in the past. go back in history. it doesn't work. in addition this will cost us $20 billion. you already can't stop 40% of people. people are digging under this wall or going around it, who is paying for that the? so none of this will make any sense. there are number of reforms, that marco rubio originally offered before he backed away. we can do what ronald reagan did in 1986. offer amnesty and path to citizenship. we can have people putting down roots and move towards the economy and benefits they get from being there. dierdre: well argued on both sides. sabrina schaefer, independent women's forum. cliff schechter, ceo of majority ohio. speaking of debate, there is a political one tonight and there ask one happening right now in the markets.
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46% of economists think after six years of no increases one may be coming from the fed. former reagan economist david stockman is squirming. here's why. >> it is a time bomb and it is the heart of the issue. i'm talking about the fed and the upcoming decision. i'm arguing that the jig is up. 80 months of zero interest rates is crazy enough. it is too many for the fed to stop its retched jihad against the savers and retires of america. dierdre: john trainer is with me. he says now the time. chadwick financial advisor john chadwick says no way. john to you first. why now? >> i wouldn't characterize it as jihad as david stockman characterized it. dierdre: strong language. >> yay. the economy is strong enough. again we've had zero interest rates for almost seven years.
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those that zero policy was instituted during the financial crisis. the economy is growing nicely. unemployment is at 5.1%. the economy can handle this. what is very important for the fed to handle the psychology around a fed increase. and that, what they need to do is talk about the slow ramp, very, very low interest rate environment as we go forward but an increasing one. so as psychology around this will determine how the markets will do. dierdre: michael, do you think this is bad timing, or do you just think the fed won't do it? where do you fall? >> i fall in the middle. i actually think the fed should have done this a long time ago. i also think reality is, economy is not great. we're seven years into emergency financial response by the fed. if the economy were great, they would have done this a long time ago. the reality the fed has been talking people into buying risk assets for a long time. i think the fed lost a ton of their credibility. so i don't think they will do
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anything tomorrow. we have inflationary print. keep kicking the can as they have done for a long, long time. the fed is supposed to be independent, the fed is becoming a political body. they're enable poor decision making from our political leaders. >> the point they pushed people into riskier assets, that is definitely worth noting. that are some worried about, some getting out over share skis. john treanor. michael chadwick. well, if the fed does raise rates the worst-case scenario you wonder what is it? jonas max ferris says it could get pretty ugly if the fed doesn't get this right. he will be joining me shortly. we look forward to that conversation. although, jonas, seems like you're right there, ready to go. we'll get to it. what is the worst-case scenario? >> it is probably not going to be rates goings up, people can't
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get car loans at low rates, we have general recession. that is kind of obvious effect of rates going up. i think it will be a little more complicated. unfortunately one of the scary things you don't really know, to quote warren buffett who is swimming naked until the water goes out. we don't know what bets to place on current situation. what will be a long shot, big wipe out, sea saw going on in rates. if the fed overdoes it, goes to 2 or% short term rate over next few months, long-term rates will go down. could have a 10-year government bond yielding 1 1/2%. a lot lower than the short term rate. that is sign of having recession. people get worried about deflation. very hard for the government to fight deflation. what would cause junk bonds to continue their recent weak decline. all the players who are essentially short treasurys and long junk bonds will get wiped out, especially people with leverage. even ordinary mutual funds that will lead unwinding junk bonds. that will lead to mutual funds collapsing.
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a lot of bankruptcies. natural resource areas where borrowing are highest. companies have no way to make money back as commodities go down with deflation. that is how is spirals. dierdre: i asked you for the worst-case scenario. you definitely gave it to me, jonas. what if the fed, let's just play what if, does a .25 raise and says that's it, we're on hold? does that mitigate some of these other side consequences intended or unintended that you think could happen? >> definitely. relatively modest increase where they keep rates lower than longer-term rates shuts up people, they're zero for x-amount of months. that fear will go away. let people relax. they could always lower rates to zero again if there is another recession. that is element of psychological comfort. going to half a percent over a year that is all acceptable to current things. if people think they're going too high, too worried about something not existent. that will square investors.
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not quarter percent increase or half. how slow or low they take it up if they go past 2%. all the past ones were hiked to level we don't need today. that is the problem. dierdre: leaving conversation with silver lining. jonas max ferris, fox business will be on fed rate hike starting full watch 1:00 p.m. eastern time, your money, your life. tune in for expert analysis, context and guidance. it starts at 1:00 p.m. eastern tomorrow. when we come back, if you noticed that a candidate is missing from tonight's republican debate you are not alone. what about the second-tier? our next guest will give you a hint. former virginia governor jim gilmore says it is unfair that he has been left out. we are all ears though. he is going to be with me next. talking about strategy. then speaking of strategic apple ceo tim cook dropping
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details of a secret driverless car by mistake? we'll talk about it after this. >> we have ceo of uber, when he was here he said, you know, apple is working on a driverless car. >> i read that. >> he has already given it away. you guys aren't big on secrets. tell me about it. [laughing] at ally bank no branches equals great rates. it's a fact. kind of like shopping hungry equals overshopping.
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due to your first accident. learn more by calling switch to liberty mutual and you can save up to $509. for a free quote today,call liberty mutual insurance at see car insurance in a whole new light. liberty mutual insurance. dierdre: the second 2016 republican presidential debate is tonight. every candidate will make his or her case on cnn if one of two debates. except for one candidate. former governor jim gilmore is forced to sit out. he is with me. he is all ears. you said last week plainly it is wrong for you to be excluded.
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did you hear back from cnn why you couldn't participate? >> i did not. if i had a chance to speak to their executives, i'll actually polling pretty well. and i'm also polling better than some of the people on the debate besides they changed their rules to favor carly fiorina. the main thing is this none of that matters. they don't owe duty of fairness to me. they owe a duty of fairness to have all voices heard. i think i'm different from the people being there tonight. that is all right. i have the opportunity to do that on campaign trail. dierdre: i want to ask you about the differences. apparently there was amalgam composite rankings. they felt like you were polling below that 1%. i hear what you're saying as far as your calculations go you should be up there. >> i could tell you specifically the polls. i'm certainly polling better consistently than either graham and pataki and they were invited
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to the debate. none of this process stuff matters. the real point is i would have the opportunity to explain to the american people why my candidacy is different from bush, different from trump, different from walker and different from jindal and different from all the people being there, i think have said inappropriate and reckless things. would i opportunity to be a voice of common sense as good solid electable conservative for the republican party and people of the united states. dierdre: governor what do you want to say? you have this platform. you will be live tweeting in the platform as well. what are the ways you want to tell america you're different, better or qualified? >> i have a specific plan will address this problem we're seeing addressed by your previous guest as a matter of fact, the slow growth of this economy. lack of jobs. young people not getting opportunities. people laid off are not getting chances to go back to working. i have experience in foreign policy and national security
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that the other former governors do not have. i would explain i believe the world is very dangerous. i charged the national commission on homeland security and terrorism for the united states and i know how dangerous the challenges are that we're facing immediately ahead of us. so i'm able to deal with those issues and deal with issues a way other candidates are not. dierdre: governor, could i stop you there, ask you, we're discussing refugees into this country. 10,000 what the white house announced. some reporters are reporting it could be higher. what is the number and what are the logistics. >> the people. united states know we're having trouble taking care of people in this country now. jobs are not there. welfare is not there. welfare will not be answer for people taken into this country or other country. we'll need to get into overarching issues in the middle east and challenges facing americans before we start
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becoming a completely humanitarian answer to the situation. go ahead, i'm sorry. dierdre: no, that is okay. i didn't mean to cut you off. i wanted to ask you too about jobs growth. skills gap between five and six million jobs go unfilled in the u.s. because of a skills gap. how would you address that? >> well funny ways to address skills but if wages are going up, there will be people that make sure they get those skills in order to meet those jobs of the problem we're facing today listeners know and viewers know, wages are stagnant and have been stagnant for a long time. that is policy of slow growth in this country the fed will not fix tomorrow no matter what they do. what we have to do is encourage entrepeneurship, investment and growth in this country in a really organ way. and a gilmore ad administration will do that if i get chance to be president. so people know how different i am from the other presidential candidates. dierdre: glad you came.
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glad to hear your ideas. i know you will be live tweeting debate. former virginia governor and presidential candidate jim gilmore. thanks. nice to have you with us. >> thank you, deirdre. dierdre: when we come back, facebook didn't like the idea of a dislike button. my next guest says, don't blame mark zuckerberg for going soft. it is actually america that has gotten too pc. then thinking about being unpc, tim cook may not be all that. he was on "the late show." find out why after this. >> siri, what should i ask tim cook? >> do me a favor, ask him when i'm going to get a raise. [laughter] ♪
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>> after years of refusing to build one facebook is working on the dislike but in the more as an but the button. looking at the psychology and social media and i guess says that mark zuckerberg is too worried about an increasingly politically correct america.
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>> >> the absolutely. no question. as a culture and the country and a civilization we are the backstop. most of europe for western europe has become so politically correct they are imploding as a culture and demographically and as a country we are now we are the last stop on the subway. the last thing we need to do is make society even more
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feminized and i don't mean male or female but soft. we don't need that. >> although i may choose another word. [laughter] read we come back if you're looking to raise some cash for an idea you think will make tons of money with vice how to raise money on his site. apple ceo was nervous last night on the late show. more on the interview to give us more insight into apple's next up. >> are used to being in front of the crowd this side without a little control there in your hand? [laughter] >> i feel a little naked.
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>>. [laughter] you are supposed to pitcher the audience is needed to call me down. [announcer:] what if one stalk of broccoli could protect you from cancer? what if one push up could prevent heart disease? [man grunts] one wishful thinking, right? but there is one step you can take to help prevent another serious disease- pneumococcal pneumonia. one dose of the prevnar 13® vaccine can help protect you ... from pneumococcal pneumonia, an illness that can cause coughing, chest pain, difficulty breathing, and may even put you in the hospital.
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deirdre: if you may wonder why it to a drone is building a chapel has in common but they're all projects that could not get off the of ground because of
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funding source in the go-go. -- indigogo. what is the best way if you have an amazing idea how does he or she makes his or her case? >> indigogo is an open platforms and anybody can go on to create a site within minutes or a few hours you want to create a good pitch with a video potentially and be authentic and put is a very raising money for and why you need it? tell friends and family and spread though word to update this story to reach out then indiegogo will help you get more money than you could on your own. deirdre: 2008 is when it was founded it seems a lot more creative people verses competitors like kickstarter that seems to demand more of
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a proof of concept but with teaser you have hard testing and thelma's using the platform. >> absolutely. whether you to board google or twitter we are an open platform. without having to do an application. we leave it to the a crowd we have a massively diverse audience whether it is greatest entrepreneurs like filmmakers like miles ahead that will premiere at the new york film festival over the micro drone that was just to the new york newspaper as stopping a burglary from happening and we also have the causes. sometimes people go on where it is totally free where family member has a problem and they need to raise some cash.
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>> if you make this distinction between indiegogo life and for business with a transaction fee? >> correct and have a sophisticated product and it is a more robust beecher if you talk to achieve 30 life you were setting up within seconds or a couple of minutes. data wintus think about the reach out to friends and family and we help them raise money very quickly then it goes straight into their bank account. deirdre: you are already in institutions. they queue for joining us. >> the fed hike protection panel is here to explain what it means to your wallet if it happens and iphones
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keller is what samsung hopes we will show you the prototype that may be a better phone. >> the diaphone is the one right here. there is no charge your. is the same one. >> that is the fondue accord [laughter] the promise of the cloud is that every organization
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[laughter] >> just like the products are meant to give tools we want to leave the world better than we found it. >> that was tim cook on his first late night tv show appearance. michael is your and christina and scott. michael, what did you think first and foremost,? >> that may not be as eccentric as steve jobs but he is denigrate job to be the company. clearly still very interested even if it is just another iphone and they are just looking when is the next item coming of the next cool exciting new thing.
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deirdre: didn't steve jobs said did you ever see it stylus then they are screwing up. [laughter] >> with the great reminder. >> to say that is not what i was talking about our is is incredible. >> so is this a a question for a mature year or company? >> we like those that have been around he has a more opportune to say because to give up the keyboard i had a revision but i am willing to give effect is of bigger
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devise but jim's make up plays his onitsha camel little longer because he has the biggest shadow of anybody anywhere. between watch and tv that will happen in. >> you cannot take cam ladies. >> no. apple's operations were a mess. to the point that other manufacturers is that they can keep up with apple on margins but they just can buy the components because they owns them all and vice the companies and owns the entire supply chain. that is part of why it is valued so high. >> also is attracting some of the best software that confusion with the thought
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process. deirdre: thinks. the countdown is on. with a fed rate decision. maybe teach you a scene or to. at ally bank no branches equals great rates. it's a fact. kind of like shopping hungry equals overshopping. awe believe active management can protect capital long term. active management can tap global insights. active management can take calculated risks. active management can seek to outperform. because active investment management isn't reactive.
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manage more than $125 billion of assets it is great to have you with us. this low interest-rate environment has created a real dilemma for investors with everyday people who want to save. in the bond fund you get nothing or the stock market is too risky. >> they have the conundrum they know they need to be invested long term but how do i manage the volatility today? would get the month of august with the volatility so they're looking for a strategy with consistent returns with the best defense can be the best offense but also selective to think where can i put capital to work for the long
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term? >> people want more than stocks or bonds. a few generations ago was 6041 dash 60 / 40. but that model does not work anymore. >> but that is a misnomer because the only this strategy is mainstream. or to enhance returns. if you look at the private market you could invest than 25 times more companies. >> if you say alternative with institutions and pension funds and universities have been using these for years. do those strategies work for average people?
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>> but the good news there is product innovation that provide daily liquidity to dial up for dial down exposure. >> the important thing is to understand. with 50% market exposure and have babies so how that will perform will be different depending on the market exposure. deirdre: please come back. the global head to alternative investment strategy. all eyes on the fed with the rate hike could happen although not in the past six years but maybe today. fox business is all over it. in some analysis coming your way.
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that's why i have the spark cash card from capital one. i earn unlimited 2% cash back on everything i buy for my studio. ♪ and that unlimited 2% cash back from spark means thousands of dollars each year going back into my business... that's huge for my bottom line. what's in your wallet? >> do you know who this woman is? >> no idea. >> any education. >> no. >> the chairman of federal reserve. >> oh, okay. i should know that. >> the fed may raise interest rates for the first time in years tomorrow. our fed hike protection team here today to help you protect your supplements no matter what. joining me now personal finance expert, gerri willis
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and berk financial strategies, lauren, what do you think? if we get this .25 raise, what are you telling your clients. >> well, you know, we're not really going to feel it right away but it is good to be aware that it might be coming. it would be better for saviors, worse for borrowers. we're not going to feel it right away. but if you are saving, you might also want to look for some of the smaller things, but you might start seeing slightly higher interest rates in the next few months. >> john, what is your take if it happens. >> deirdre, every day we talk to clients and tell them it comes up over and over again, look, the federal reserve does not control interest rates, they control the federal reserve rate and the interest rates controlled by the market. the ten-year rate that we follow so closely has started to move up and since february and up almost three-quarters of a percent already suspect. so we're focused more on that. >> the explanation is great and i'm sure your clients appreciate it but what does this mean for their money.
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>> there are investments that benefit from rising rates, for example, bank stocks. we're suggesting to our clients bank stocks, they benefit from the rise in spread, the difference for them is what they pay out in deposits and what they make in lending and when rates go up. >> all right. so, gerri, what are your thoughts on this. >> well, i think it's a big deal. i'm not in the camp to think it's not nothing. i think it's very important, especially for retirees and these are folks who are saving all the time. they've got nothing for their money for the last nine years. the period of time in which we've been raising for some federal rate rise and it hasn't happened. so if you were in cds, this is going to be critically important and people don't realize this also goes into the pricing of annuities, health care terms policies, people buy in retirement. so this could be beginning of a very important move and as
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you were saying if you're a borrower, it's time to pay that down. >> and to your point saviors have been clearly punished. lauren, i want to ask you how many people and john the same thing, who is i can't make any money as gerri just said in a savings bond or something transitional. how many have tried to push their risk tolerance a little bit. >> well, you know, i think it's special clients who are looking to a longer retirement horizon, people are going to be working for longer or have a long life expectation are definitely pushing the risk tolerance quite a bit in this rate. and still see people keeping it safe. >> john, concerning or not. >> definitely an issue. 70% of americans did not save up enough for retirement and have to lower their living standard in retirement so they want us to make up for it but, hey, find me a higher rate. i have to make 6% on that bond. it's definitely an issue, they need to be careful about those higher rates. >> yeah. as we say there's no free lunch and you can't get
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something for nothing, and gerri willis, john berk joining us there ahead of this it key rate decision, we are on rate hike watch starting at 1:00 p.m. eastern time tomorrow. don't miss it. coming up next making money with charles payne. charles: stocks sore. oil sore, and oil, we have stocks that you should own. and the utopia foreign policies of the west have created a migrant crisis that will test the generosity and the wallets. the big question can the eu survive. and the big debate tomorrow why they're attacking donald trump and how they become part of the establishment. making money starts right now. ♪ ♪ .


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